Model Transparency

Default Assumptions
& Data Sources

Every default value in the Altamimi ROI Model is documented here, with the source it is derived from and the reasoning behind it. All defaults can be overridden in the calculator. Understanding why a default exists helps you decide when to change it.

On default assumptions

No single set of defaults is correct for every Dubai property. Defaults exist to produce a reasonable mid-market starting point — not a recommendation. Any serious investment analysis should replace the defaults with property-specific data. The purpose of documenting them here is to make the model auditable: you should understand what assumptions are baked into the calculator output before relying on it.

Category 01

Acquisition & Transaction Costs

Purchase Costs (purchaseCostsPct)

Default: 6.5%Range: 6.0–7.5%

Source: Dubai Land Department fee schedule, RERA

DLD transfer fee 4.0% + agent commission 2.0% + title deed and trustee fees ≈0.5%. The 6.5% default is for cash buyers. Mortgage buyers add 0.25% mortgage registration separately.

Selling Costs (sellingCostsPct)

Default: 0%Range: 0–2%

Source: Standard Dubai brokerage practice

Default is zero to allow users to model gross proceeds. In practice, sellers typically pay 2% agent commission. Users are encouraged to set this to 2% for realistic exit modelling. Some sellers negotiate 1.5%.

Mortgage Registration Fee

Default: 0.25% of loanRange: Fixed (DLD-regulated)

Source: Dubai Land Department Decree No. 9 of 2009

The DLD charges 0.25% of the loan amount plus AED 290 for mortgage registration. This is modelled separately from purchaseCostsPct because it applies to the loan amount, not the purchase price.

Category 02

Rental Income

Vacancy Rate (vacancyPct)

Default: 6%Range: 3–15%

Source: RERA vacancy data, Allsopp & Allsopp Dubai Rental Report 2024–2025

6% represents approximately 3 weeks of void between annual tenancies — realistic for a professionally managed, well-located apartment. Studios in high-supply buildings may run 10–15%. Prime locations with long-stay tenants can achieve 3–4%.

Property Management Fee (managementPct)

Default: 7%Range: 5–10%

Source: RERA-registered management company rate cards, 2025

Typical annual property management contracts in Dubai range from 5% (basic collection) to 10% (full-service including maintenance coordination). 7% reflects standard mid-market full-management service. Unfurnished long-let tenancies sit at 5–7%. Short-term rental management (holiday lets) typically runs 20–25% and is not covered by this default.

Rent Growth (rentGrowthPct)

Default: 3% per yearRange: 0–8%

Source: RERA Rental Index 2016–2025 (excluding 2022–2023 spike)

Long-run Dubai rental growth (2016–2021 and 2023–2025 normalised) averages 2.5–3.5% per year in established communities. The 3% default excludes the anomalous 20–40% spike of 2022–2023, which was driven by post-COVID demand surge and is not expected to recur at the same magnitude. Conservative investors should use 2%. Growth investors in undersupplied communities may use 4–5%.

Category 03

Operating Expenses

Service Charge (serviceChargeYear)

Default: AED 0 (user-input)Range: AED 3,500–65,000/year

Source: RERA MOLLAK strata fee register, 2025

Service charges are property-specific and must be entered by the user. There is no sensible single default. The model deliberately forces this input rather than defaulting to zero, because service charges can consume 15–40% of gross income in premium buildings. Refer to the community benchmarks table in the Dubai ROI Guide for reference values.

Maintenance Reserve

Default: Not separately modelledRange: 0.5–1% of property value/year

Source: RICS Property Maintenance Reserve guidance

The model does not include a separate maintenance reserve line. Investors who want to account for ongoing repairs (appliances, painting, minor works) should either reduce the management fee input upward or reduce the annualRent input by AED 3,000–8,000/year for an unfurnished unit. A furnished unit should budget AED 8,000–15,000/year for wear replacement.

Category 04

Capital Appreciation & Scenario Presets

Annual Appreciation (appreciationPct)

Default: 5% per yearRange: 0–12%

Source: DLD transaction data 2010–2025, JLL Dubai Market Report Q1 2026

Dubai residential price index shows a long-run compound growth of 4.5–5.5% per year from 2010–2025, including the 2015–2020 correction and the 2021–2025 recovery cycle. The 5% default represents the long-run mean. Conservative modelling: 3%. Growth scenario: 7–8% (appropriate for undersupplied premium sub-markets). Stressed scenario: 0% (flat market — useful for breakeven analysis).

Conservative Scenario

Default: 3% appreciation, 2% rent growth, 8% vacancyRange:

Source: Altamimi internal stress scenario, calibrated to 2015–2019 Dubai market

The conservative preset reflects the 2015–2019 period when Dubai saw cumulative price declines of 20–30% in some segments. A 3% appreciation figure in this context represents a significantly below-average market — appropriate for high-supply communities or investors with short hold periods.

Balanced Scenario

Default: 5% appreciation, 3% rent growth, 6% vacancyRange:

Source: Altamimi ROI Model baseline

The default scenario, calibrated to long-run Dubai market averages. Appropriate for mid-market communities with 7+ year hold periods.

Growth Scenario

Default: 7% appreciation, 4% rent growth, 5% vacancyRange:

Source: Altamimi internal growth scenario, calibrated to 2021–2025 Dubai market

Reflects the 2021–2025 bull cycle. May be appropriate for premium undersupplied communities (Dubai Hills, Palm, Creek Harbour) where supply pipeline is constrained. Not appropriate for high-supply communities like JVC or Arjan.

Category 05

Mortgage Financing

Mortgage Interest Rate (interestRatePct)

Default: 4.5%Range: 3.5–6.5%

Source: UAE Central Bank Base Rate + typical bank margin, May 2026

UAE mortgage rates are variable, linked to EIBOR (Emirates Interbank Offered Rate) plus a bank margin of 1.25–2.0%. As of May 2026, typical investment property mortgage rates from major UAE banks range from 4.0–5.5%. 4.5% is the mid-point. UAE banks commonly offer 1–3 year fixed-rate periods before converting to variable. Expat buyers with existing bank relationships may negotiate 3.75–4.25%.

Mortgage Term (mortgageTermYears)

Default: 20 yearsRange: 5–25 years

Source: UAE Central Bank mortgage regulations (Circular 31/2013)

UAE Central Bank regulations cap mortgage terms at 25 years for UAE nationals and 25 years for expats purchasing primary residences. For investment properties, most banks offer 20–25 years. The maximum age at mortgage maturity is 70 for UAE nationals and 65 for expats, which frequently constrains the term for older borrowers.

Down Payment (downPaymentPct)

Default: 20%Range: 20–100%

Source: UAE Central Bank LTV regulations (Circular 31/2013, amended 2022)

The minimum down payment for non-UAE-national investors on a first investment property (not primary residence) is 20% of property value for properties under AED 5M. For properties above AED 5M, the minimum is 30%. Second property purchasers face 35% minimum. The 20% default is the regulatory floor for a sub-AED 5M first investment purchase.

Early Settlement Penalty (earlySettlementPct)

Default: 1%Range: 0–1.5%

Source: UAE Central Bank Circular 29/2011 — early settlement cap

UAE Central Bank caps early settlement penalties at 1% of outstanding balance, maximum AED 10,000. Most major banks apply the 1% maximum. Some banks offer 0.5% early settlement in the last 2 years of the mortgage term. The model applies the penalty at sale if a mortgage balance remains, which is the realistic scenario for most holds shorter than the mortgage term.

Mortgage Insurance (mortgageInsurancePct)

Default: 0.4%Range: 0.25–0.6%

Source: UAE mortgage protection insurance market rates, 2025

Most UAE lenders require mortgage protection insurance (life and critical illness cover to repay the loan on death or disability). Premiums are calculated on declining outstanding balance and typically range from 0.3–0.5% per year. 0.4% is a reasonable mid-market estimate. The annual cost declines as the balance reduces, which the model correctly captures by applying the rate to the year-start balance.

Category 06

Off-Plan Specific Parameters

Off-Plan Discount (offplanDiscountPct)

Default: 10%Range: 0–25%

Source: Altamimi transaction data 2022–2026, Bayut off-plan price analysis

Dubai developers typically price off-plan launches at 8–15% below projected handover market values in established communities. This discount is the incentive to accept construction risk. In over-supplied communities or slow-selling developments, the discount narrows or disappears. In premium undersupplied launches (select Palm, Downtown, Creek Harbour projects), buyers have paid at or above secondary market values. 10% is a conservative mid-market estimate.

Construction Period (constructionMonths)

Default: 30 monthsRange: 18–60 months

Source: DLD/RERA off-plan project delivery data 2018–2025

Mid-market Dubai apartment projects (JVC, Business Bay, Arjan) have historically delivered in 30–42 months from launch. Premium projects and towers above 30 floors typically take 42–54 months. Some developers have a strong track record of 24-month delivery. Historically, approximately 40% of Dubai off-plan projects experience delays of 6–18 months beyond the advertised completion date. The 30-month default assumes an on-time delivery for a standard mid-rise development.

Guidance

When & How to Override Defaults

The calculator allows every parameter to be adjusted. Here are the most important overrides for realistic investment analysis:

  1. 1.Service charges: Always enter the actual RERA-registered service charge for your specific building, not the community average. MOLLAK (RERA's service charge portal) publishes approved rates by development. A AED 5,000 variance in service charge changes net yield by ~0.3–0.5% on a AED 1M property.
  2. 2.Vacancy: Use 8–12% for new off-plan developments in the first 2 years post-handover, when competing supply from the same tower reaches the market simultaneously. Use 3–5% for proven long-stay buildings with existing tenant waitlists.
  3. 3.Appreciation: For a specific investment decision, replace 5% with the area's actual 5-year price CAGR from DLD transaction data — not developer marketing materials. JVC has historically delivered 4.2%. Palm has delivered 6.8%. International City has delivered 1.5%.
  4. 4.Selling costs: Always set to 2% unless you have confirmed you can sell without an agent or at a reduced commission. Omitting selling costs inflates annualised return by 0.2–0.5 percentage points depending on hold period.
  5. 5.Rent growth: If you are modelling a short-term rental (STR/Airbnb) strategy, set rent growth to 0% and reduce the annual rent to the seasonally-adjusted net income after DTCM fees and platform commissions. STR income is more volatile than modelled growth rates imply.

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Every assumption documented on this page can be adjusted in the calculator. Replace the defaults with your property's actual figures for a defensible investment analysis.

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